Pre-performance Lobby events. And to force somebody to do it, it just makes even less sense, because this country is supposed to be free.. In West Terre Haute, across the Wabash River from Terre Haute, Bobby Tisdell, a 38-year-old forklift driver, plans to cast his first vote on Election Day. The issues most important to Fannin include the economy, border security, and the virus. Were still there right now as a bellwether county, but we dont know whether well keep it up.. SACRAMENTO . We need jobs up here, good-paying full-time jobs, she added. Myers works as an electrician and long supported the Democratic Party along with his union. He doesnt seem like a really bad guy. Vigo County voters supported Trump by a 15 percent margin in 2016. State residents are awaiting a ruling from the Ohio Supreme Court about whether it will approve the newly proposed congressional map that the Ohio Redistricting Commission submitted to the high court earlier this month. Myerss morals include being respectful to others, and he thinks Trump has failed in that regard. March 1, 2022 Updated: March 3, 2022 Print It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. Although longtime county residents say that Wood County is in pretty good shape overallas there has been some recent industrial development on its north sideit also has been affected by national issues such as inflation, the price of gasoline, supply chain issues, and workforce shortages. When you were in the union, they always wanted you to vote for Democrats, Paul said. In the May 3 primary, theres also a mix of familiar names with new candidates on the ballot. Were a service industry-oriented area. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. The issues most important to Jacobs are immigration, the health care system, and socialism. And then you have the Biden folks that are like, This is just nutty,' he said. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain. We need to finish putting up the wall that Trump started. The simple answer is that chance effects can be much greater than most people realize. The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. He told The Epoch Times that hes facing workforce shortages and currently only has 18 cookshalf of what he normally would have. But hes pleased with how Trump has run the country and is eager to reelect him. If I look back on my life, there is a swing toward the right, and then it swings back toward the left. Epoch Times: "Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020" Find UFOs, The Apocalypse, New World Order, Political Analysis, Alternative Health, Armageddon, Conspiracies, Prophecies, Spirituality, Home Schooling, Home Mortgages and more, in: Rumor Mill News Reading Room, Current Archive Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. He worked for a tree service company for some years, but was laid off again. The researchers also mapped all U.S. counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scoretheir record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. Im seeing more hate for this man than he has hated anyone, Tisdell said. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. 2016 Trump. Medicare is becoming a joke. He said he finds it hard to believe Bidens claim that he never talked to his son Hunter Biden about his deals in Ukraine and China. Part of his route is driving up to Detroit and Flint, Michigan, every day. Fannin plans to vote in person and is pretty sure Trump will win a second term, but hes concerned about the integrity of the mail-in ballots. Guests are invited to enjoy live music from The BanDura BanDuo, featuring Angelika and Justin Mehes, a brother-sister musical act, visit the Cheremosh Ukrainian Dance Ensemble's costume display featuring traditional Ukrainian folk dance costumes, and connect with the . For example, if we call a county a bellwether if it has one less correct match than the number of elections in a sequence, we will get nearly 19 bellwethers even in a set of eleven elections, and in a set of seven elections, we will see 197 bellwethers far more than the 27 we would find under our assumptions when we require a bellwether to have an unblemished record of predictive success. But its still anyones game when taking into account the 1.2 million unaffiliated or other-party voters and the roughly 70 percent voter turnout. But you cant winem all, Beggs, 80, told The Epoch Times. "The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. Our model also links this decline to increases in polarization. While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. We find that bellwether success is almost entirely a matter of random coin tosses in multiple counties over time to create an appearance of predictive power that is a matter of chance. Theres too much mishandling, she said. Competing for the Democratic nomination are John Cranley and former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. This claim is basically absurd. The median household annual income is approximately $20,000 less in the county than it is nationally. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the nineteen counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. I dont think he has done that bad of a job. In an October 7, 2020, essay in the New York Times, David Wasserman looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties for evidence that Donald Trump is in serious trouble. But, just within the last year, the price of everything has gone up. One older woman with a Biden sign outside her home simply said, Im voting for Biden, and thats all Ive got to say.. Ottawa County is also the home to the Marblehead lighthouse (the oldest lighthouse in continuous operation on the Great Lakes), Africa Wildlife Safari, and its county seat of Port Clinton is known as the Walleye Capital of the World. Since its founding in 1853 it has only got 13 out of the 37 extant elections right. And this years election is unlike any other, in which mail-in voting has become the norm, injecting an air of uncertainty into a year already full of upheaval. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. Teresa Shepherd, a middle-aged woman living in Riley, just southeast of Terre Haute, has never cared much about voting. Second, when we examine a short string of elections, we do indeed, find that some counties go with the winner in all (or virtually all the elections). Things happen for a reason, and its out of our control until things change, Brendon told The Epoch Times. In Ridgway, Biden supporters were more difficult to find and more reluctant to talk than Trump supporters, but a few yard signs were dotted around. However, the political viewpoints of its residents are mixed as they have become more wary and leery of the government. Epoch Times, Gateway Pundit, and show a different electoral vote count for two reasons: They exclude states with pending litigation or recounts, subtracting votes from. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. He says Democratic Gov. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high scoring counties, they said. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. The 2012 outcome seemed to be the beginning of a more robust shift to the right for the countywhile the state reelected Obama, Elk County had already moved on. With a fragile economy following the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ohio is eyeing the May 3 primary election with Wood County at somewhat of a standstill. I believe in what they call entitlement programs, Hamilton said. We just couldnt believe that Trump had lost.. Tammy, who didnt want to provide her last name, told The Epoch Times that during the summer leading up to the 2020 presidential election, the area had a regatta on Lake Erie in Marblehead in support of Donald Trump. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Haotian Chen is a Ph.D. student in political science at the University of California, Irvine. Tom Wolf overstepped his boundaries during the pandemic. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. I dont think you should take that away from me.. He won Ohio by eight, Iowa by eight. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election. He received his bachelors degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Toledo and a Masters degree in electrical engineering from Northwestern in Illinois. She said her husband will vote for Trump, too. I cant lead that kind of lifestyle.. I think we needed somebody like him.. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. Half the people are just wearing rags on top of their face. This is a high farming community.. In the southern area just off Interstate 75 sits Bowling Green, the county seat and home of Bowling Green State University and Doyt L. Perry Stadium, where the Falcons draw large crowds in the Mid-American Conference. Elk Countys approximately 15,000 residents that go to the polls have voted for the eventual winner in all but three presidential elections since 1932in 1940, 1968, and 2012. Bellwethers must make correct predictions regardless of which party wins election, but polarization makes it increasingly likely that counties will split into ones that vote regularly for a Republican or for a Democratic presidential nominee. Rob Portmans seat, Coppeler said. Former President Trump and his supporters continue to loudly assert that he really won the 2020 election even though all the alleged direct evidence of fraud has not passed the sniff test of local courts, including those with Republican judges. We want to get people off of welfare, we need to get people back into working again, being self sustainable. The 19 bellwether counties are highlighted in red. Miller is often faced with tough decisions in his business. Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. Because of the current situation, I have to look at our finances and say, Can I get this new truck, can I hire these two to three new employees, can we go into this new line of business? Those who believe that Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election have held up his victories in many bellwether counties as evidence of electoral fraud. Were not going to be able to afford this Democratic regime. Wolf has allowed for the counting of ballots to continue for three days after Nov. 3, meaning its unlikely that a winner will be called in Pennsylvania for at least a week after the election. A diverse group of residents, many were surprised to wake up the morning of Nov. 4, 2020, to see that Joe Biden overtook Trumps leads in numerous battleground states from the night beforesuch as in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The morale of the people up there is bad. Eleven of the nineteen were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. Meanwhile, Miller and Zulch voiced their support for restarting the Keystone XL pipeline to help the United States return to energy independence and provide oil to European countries experiencing gas shortages and high prices. Its too big. Global Trade Policy Challenges: preparing for the next decade, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported. Delaware's Kent County last missed in 1992. Hes concerned a Biden administration would mean an end to fracking, higher gas prices, and utility bill hikes. Carol Jacobs and her husband were lifelong Democrats until 2016. Our roads need to be fixed. And its never going to come back.. Bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large population of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. His message to Trump is: Shut up and quit twittering. Rarely are we really stuck with people in leadership that are fairly moderate. Petr Svab is a reporter covering New York. The price of gas at the Marathon gas station in Port Clinton was $3.39 a gallon on Feb. 22 whenDave Beggs, anarmy veteran and retired City of Port Clinton heavy equipment operator, pulled in. I dont think my vote counts, he told The Epoch Times. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? All the negativity, and just pure anger for this one person in office I have never seen it before. TERRE HAUTE, Ind.For well over a century, voters in Vigo County, Indiana, have backed the winner in almost every presidential election. Were going to shift from a materialistic world to a more conscious and spiritual world, he said. We believe that there are two main reasons. I think Trump was the better president, said Beggs, who worked for the city for 45 years. Its horrible. We need election reform.. He isnt happy that Biden called Trump names during the first debate. He also drives more than 40 miles from Marblehead to Wellington to pick up his truck. I mean the whole world ought to be mad at China, we should all be going to war against them. Theres too much corruption. County residents had voted for the presidential candidate who won the White House for nearly 60 years, since Democrat Lyndon Johnson won in 1964, according to the Ottawa County Board of Elections. Getting fertilizer can be a challenge.. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. More importantly, someone needs to be in office who understands that running the country is like running a business, said Hawker, who worked as a staff engineer for Bendix Braking Systems in Elyria for 52 years. Its just too depressing, too much bad and evil going on in the world, Shepherd told The Epoch Times. Hes pleased with the last twoBrett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrettby Trump. But thats not the picture I look at. Fitch said almost half of the 5,000-strong Second Amendment group in Elk county are Democrats. Youre not getting anybody perfect. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of the state between Toledo and Cleveland, the area has a population of 40,364, according to the 2020 Census. Westmoreland County, Virginia, is almost one third black. Donald Trump 16 out of 39 counties which are considered significant bellwethers. Blaine County. Will Ohios Wood County Continue to Be a Reliable Bellwether Indicator? And it can happen.. Thats part of what has made it an effective bellwether, at least in recent decades, he said. If he does not answer that issue clearly, I will not vote for him.. We shouldnt be fighting among each other here. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in Texas (San Antonio) has had only one miss since 1928 (preferring the Democrat Hubert Humphrey in 1968). For example, a county might be said to be a "bellwether county" if it consistently votes the same way as the majority of the state. I believe in a time cycle. Hes feeding people, instead of beating them up, to get stuff accomplished. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. Soon, he lost his union membership because he had no money to pay the dues. To accept cookies, click continue. He said hes concerned but hopeful for the future. Theres significant variability among them, though. There isnt anything I can do to change it or to make it better by voting.. They can try all they can to prevent whatever they want to prevent, but nature is going to run its course, no matter what, Tisdell said. Even wearing a mask, youre still not certain. The insulting back and forth really bothers me about any candidate, Myers said. When he became a Christian, he struggled with his unions blind support for Democratic candidates, most of whom arent pro-life, he said. Supply chain issues also have plagued the restaurant industry, not just with food such as chicken and other meats, but also supplies, Chamberlin said. They write that the electoral record shows that not only are bellwether counties poor predictors of who will win a presidential election, rising polarization means that their ability to predict long streaks of elections has been in decline over the last two decades. Tammy said that with the lakefront area being a popular spot for fishing and tourists, the price of gas always has been higher than average. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. Because of supply chain issues, its also difficult to find parts, Miller said. After the 46-state landslide, James Farley, Roosevelts campaign manager, revised the theory: As goes Maine, so goes Vermont.. Chamberlin, who has worked for the regional chain for 17 years, estimates he has saved about $2,000 in gas over the past year. The farther we get from the November election, the more time data analysts and others have to examine the most unlikeliest of election victories by Democrat Joe Biden. Weve never done that before.. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. But, he said, he also doesnt complain. When there was, we were making money pulling people out of ditches.. Right after we saw the results of the election and that Trump had lost, we were all like, what the hell?, said Tammy, a bartender at Wee Willys Sports Pub in Marblehead. Shortened URL for this post: He cares about the American people.. These 10 bellwether counties five in Sun Belt battlegrounds, five in the Frost Belt (loosely defined to include Iowa) could point us toward each state's winner. Though Myers leans toward Trump, he hasnt made up his mind to vote for him yet; he didnt vote for Trump in 2016. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. A lot of people think things are. Biden has talked both ways, so its hard for me to really grasp where he is on the issue. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. Rural white America is principally Trump, and they are ripe for conspiracy theories. . (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times) By Charlotte. 2020: Trump - 59.1%, Biden - 38.5. In addition to seeing a 25 percent increase in fuel costs in the past year, the company has resorted to buying used trucks instead of new ones when it needs them. Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. Eleven of the 19 were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. Washington County, Maine - one miss since 1972 (in 1976), perfect since 1980. His morals also include being honest, and he is bothered by what he sees as lies coming from both candidates. I vote for whomever I think is going to do the better job, whether they are a Democrat or a Republican. Its crazy. Since the 2020 elections, there also have been 879 newly-registered voters bringing the total to 30,248, Board of Elections director Carol Ann Hill told The Epoch Times. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. The roads are bad, the price of gas is high, its one thing after another. Another Ridgway resident said hes more enthusiastic to vote for Trump this year. For Tisdell, the two major issues that weigh on his mind this year are the riots and the pandemic. Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we find a striking decline in the proportion of bellwether counties, i.e., those with correct prediction in past elections. Plastic cups and straws also have been hard to come by because they require natural gas in their manufacturing process. It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. Seasonal businesses such as ferries, dairy docks, ice cream stands, Cheesehaven, and fudge factories, are closed. Natural gas is a key ingredient in the process used to make the nitrogen-based fertilizer used on crops such as corn and wheat. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. If this thing continues, were going to be paying $6 a gallon for gas, he said. It bisects six counties Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Orange, Seminole and Volusia but is far bigger than the . Hes an elitist and just couldnt keep his mouth shut. Two states have announced recounts. He is his own worst enemy.. What happened to our Democratic Party? Westmoreland is the only one of the counties in the South, Clallam is the only one on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. But the thing that stuck out in my head, every time I read or listened to anything about [Obamas] policies, I saw such a deep revival of division, causing division between the blacks and the whites again, Jacobs said on Sept. 17. Bremer County, Iowa Peloton plans to complete construction on the building on its 200-acre property and sell it, but will downsize its workforce. Logistically, its a disaster. I know a lot of people dont like him, because of his tweets and things that he says, and I kind of agree with that. It doesnt matter whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, youre going to get a crook. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Given the global context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, they believe higher gas prices and inflation is coming, and theyre not happy about it. In 2016, Pennsylvania itself was wrenched out of its 24-year run as a Democratic sure bet when Donald Trump cleared just over 44,000 more votes than Hillary Clinton and took the states prized 20 electoral votes. The researchers also mapped all American counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scorethat is their record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. Previously, he covered national topics including politics, economy, education, and law enforcement. I feel that if Trump is president again, that will cease. Weve always had a mix of voters, Baumgardner added. He loves this country. He is just outspoken and doesnt filter what he is saying.. Unfortunately, however, neither of the reasons for why we might think that previous bellwethers will continue to be bellwethers is valid. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. He won nineteen-to-twenty bellwether counties. The economy and good-paying jobs always have been an issue up here.. Its a county where the residents are proud of its powdered metal factories and where the Ford F-Series is as ubiquitous as the American flag. I kind of keep in my bubble. Overall, the county is in good shape, and has a lot going for it.. Right now, its horrible. schoolcraft reserve police academy, black ink crew: chicago cast member dies, grace ranch tucson,